Global Asset Allocation Team Market Update – November 2025

Global equity markets marched higher in October. The S&P 500 extended its winning streak thanks to a healthy slate of corporate earnings. However, the monthly gain was driven by a narrow group of stocks, with the Magnificent Seven soaring higher as mania around AI continued to be a key source of upward momentum. By contrast, the equal-weighted S&P 500 declined in its first monthly loss since the tariff turmoil in April. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX posted a more moderate gain as the latest pullback in gold stocks weighed. Elsewhere, the MSCI EAFE advanced, while the MSCI gauge of emerging market stocks led the global charge – driven by the artificial-intelligence boom and receding trade tensions between the United States and China.

Fixed income markets also generated positive results. Bond yields edged lower as traders braced for rate cuts from both the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada. While indeed following through in late October, policymakers set a high bar for future reductions – which saw bond yields back-up towards month-end. Chair Powell said a rate cut in December is not a foregone conclusion (“in fact, far from it”) – while Governor Macklem stated that rates are now at “about the right level.” The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index rose 0.6%, while the FTSE Canada Bond Universe gained 0.7%.

The US dollar strengthened to a three-month high after some Federal Reserve officials pushed back on calls for another rate cut at the December gathering. That saw the yen, euro, pound, and Canadian Dollar all weaken against the greenback last month.

Finally, oil retreated as investors focused on a lingering supply glut and the prospect for OPEC+ to add additional barrels to the market. While the relentless run in gold prices continued last month, bullion lost some momentum as expectations for fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts weighed on the non-interest-bearing metal. Copper hit a record amid easing in US-China trade tensions, while mine-supply setbacks added to concerns about physical tightness in the market.

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