Insights

The macroeconomic outlook continued to gather momentum heading into the second quarter as the global vaccine campaign accelerated, while plans for large-scale fiscal spending in the US also emboldened calls for a rapid recovery through 2021.

The fastest bear-market recovery in history showed little sign of wavering in August. Investor optimism remained buoyant on signs of progress in developing a vaccine to quell the pandemic, which helped to instill confidence in a swift global economic revival.

Investors headed towards the end of 2019 in an optimistic mood as two policy risks that were plaguing sentiment throughout the year receded in December, while some nascent signs of a stabilizing global economy also buoyed risk appetite. Of note, the US and China managed to agree on the details of a “phase one” trade […]

The crisis in confidence stemming from COVID-19 has become increasingly self-fulfilling, which has brought into question our outlook for global growth as government efforts to contain the virus restricts economic activity and as individuals self-isolate in response to the fast-spreading pandemic.